As the Russia–Ukraine War enters its fifth year, with few signs of an ending, SIPRI has published a new paper that provides unique insights into Russia’s military spending and budget.
In ‘A Budget for a Fifth Year of War: Military Spending in Russia’s Budget for 2026’, author Professor Julian Cooper looks at Russia’s federal budget funding of the war and how it has changed over time.
The paper analyses the drafting of the 2026–28 budget and the parallel amendments made to the 2025 budget. It describes the various elements of military and other war-related spending within the budget—giving updated estimates of Russian military expenditure in 2022–25 and a first estimate for 2026. It also considers the Russian government’s tough monetary policy in 2025 to reduce the rate of inflation and the Ministry of Defence’s more stringent financial management methods, including savings made on purchases of armament.
The paper concludes that the pressure on the Russian economy that was increasingly visible during 2025 is unlikely to stop the war in Ukraine. The economic effects of the Iran war, launched by Israel and the United States last month, make this even more certain, as higher oil prices should greatly ease Russia’s budget situation this year.
The paper’s publication comes one month before SIPRI launches its annual update of the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database on 27 April. The database is the most comprehensive, consistent and extensive publicly available data source on military expenditure.