Navigating Green Geopolitics: Perils and Promise of Energy Transition and the Case of Ukraine

Global efforts to decarbonize energy systems are reshaping patterns of power, dependence and vulnerability. As states compete over access to critical minerals, clean energy technologies and supply chains, the energy transition is increasingly intertwined with questions of security, sovereignty and geopolitical alignment. These dynamics are particularly acute for Ukraine, which must navigate war, reconstruction and integration into European markets at the same time.

This report examines how ‘green geopolitics’ is unfolding through the strategies of major powers such as China, the European Union, Russia and the United States, and what this means for Ukraine’s energy transition and recovery. It analyses how energy and industrial policies, sanctions and mineral deals can create new opportunities for resilience and diversification, but also risks of green extractives, asymmetric dependence and renewed hydrocarbon lock-in. The authors argue that Ukraine and its partners should prioritize domestic value creation, workforce development and industrial upgrading, and condition participation in critical minerals and energy value chains on technology transfer, local content and strong environmental and social safeguards. The report concludes that without such measures, the energy transition could replicate older patterns of dependence, but with careful governance it could instead support a more secure, autonomous and sustainable future for Ukraine.