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1. The Euro-Atlantic system and global security



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New US strategy
documents adopted in 2002 allow for military action—pre-emptive
where necessary—against ‘asymmetrical’ threats
posed by terrorists and weapons of mass destruction as one means
to an explicit goal of preserving US military supremacy. They
prescribe the transformation of US national forces with emphasis
on strike capabilities, active and passive defences, and responsive
infrastructure. During the year the USA pursued its military
action in Afghanistan, acquired bases and military partners in
new regions and launched an ambitious homeland security programme
under a new single department. In March President Bush declared
his determination to stop the threat from Iraq, with prime reference
to Saddam Hussein’s efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction.
Widespread international concerns were voiced about the consequences,
legal propriety and relative priority of an attack on Iraq, and
during the autumn the USA consented to work with other UN Security
Council members for a UN resolution sending international inspectors
back to the country instead. By the end of the year they had
made no clear findings, while Saddam continued a policy of denial.

relations were strained on a number of global policy issues besides
Iraq. The US administration’s emphasis on ‘coalitions
of the willing’ raised fears of its breaking away from alliances
and legal constraints, while US thinkers derided Europe’s
inability either to wield power or to understand it. Nonetheless,
during 2002 factors of calculation or loyalty kept both sides
working for compromises—fragile though these would soon

NATO and the
EU had a triple agenda: enlargement, adaptation and the management
of the Balkans (where a trend to shift responsibility to the
EU emerged by the end of the year). NATO invited seven new members
to join in 2004, including the Baltic states, with minimal Russian
protest. It adopted decisions opening the way for worldwide deployments,
and a package of measures in November (a new Capabilities Commitment,
a new Response Force and a new command structure) potentially
providing tools for them. US–European tensions persisted,
however, and the principal blockage to full NATO support for
EU military operations was removed only after mid-December.

The EU invited
10 new members (including Malta and Cyprus) to join in 2004,
gave Romania and Bulgaria a 2007 target and—after difficult
discussions—agreed to define Turkey’s target date in
late 2004 if reforms have progressed far enough. It opened a
new-style European Convention to discuss the Union’s adaptation
for the future, including a possible ‘constitution’.
The EU and NATO also reflected on new ‘outreach’ policies
and structures after enlargement to promote partnership with,
and contain instability from, new neighbour regions to the east
and south.

In Russia,
President Putin developed a personal strategy increasingly anchored
in the West, conserving Russia’s limited energies for internal
growth and acknowledging the common nature of many global threats.
Realist but not yet deep-rooted, this policy brought Russia some
rewards in 2002 for its acceptance inter alia of US missile defence
plans, NATO enlargement and US bases in Central Asia. The policy
did not, however, achieve true US–Russian equality or dispose
of all disagreements. Russia handled its internal conflicts as
a ‘terrorist’ challenge, opting for an imposed military
and political solution in Chechnya, especially after a costly
hostage incident in October, and threatening cross-border strikes
into Georgia.

Russia secured
a new consultative relationship ‘at 20’ with NATO when
the NATO–Russia Council was inaugurated in May, with an
agenda including cooperation on ‘new threats’. Kaliningrad
became the main bone of contention regarding EU expansion plans,
but after eventful negotiations an EU package of measures to
ease Russian citizens’ transit from and to the exclave was
accepted in November. Russia took steps in Central Asia, notably
emphasizing the collective security functions of the Commonwealth
of Independent States, to signal its continuing claim to influence


1A. The African Union: the vision, programme,
policies and challenges


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The African
Union (AU) replaced the Organization for African Unity as a more
cohesive and integrated African organization. At the time of
transition, the continent was racked by a series of internal
conflicts that threatened to undermine the viability of any sustained
regional agenda. Disputed electoral outcomes have been a major
source of political tension. The AU is also concerned with the
issue of terrorism. The degree of international support will
be a crucial factor in the implementation of the AU’s agenda.


Dr Ian

(United Kingdom) is SIPRI Research Coordinator and the Leader
of the SIPRI Internet Database on European Export Controls Project.
In 1992–98 he was Leader of the SIPRI Arms Transfers Project.
His most recent publication for SIPRI is A Future Arms Control
Agenda: Proceedings of Nobel Symposium 118, 1999 (2001), for
which he is co-editor (with Adam Daniel Rotfeld). He is also
editor of the SIPRI volumes Russia and the Arms Trade (1998),
Arms Export Regulations (1991) and SIPRI Research Report no.
7, The Future of Defence Industries in Central and Eastern Europe
(1994), and author of The Naval Arms Trade (SIPRI, 1990) and
The Arms Trade and Medium Powers: Case Studies of India and Pakistan
1947–90 (Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992). He has written or
co-authored chapters for the SIPRI Yearbook since 1988.

J. K. Bailes

(United Kingdom) took over as Director of SIPRI in July 2002.
She was previously a member of the British Diplomatic Service
for 33 years, ending as British Ambassador to Finland in 2000–2002.
Her other diplomatic postings include Budapest, the British Delegation
to NATO, Bonn, Beijing and Oslo and she spent several periods
on detachment outside the Service, including two academic sabbaticals,
a two-year period with the British Ministry of Defence, and assignments
to the European Union and Western European Union. Her main analytical
interests are politico-military affairs, European integration
and Central European affairs. She has published a large number
of articles in international journals on these subjects as well
as on Chinese foreign policy.

N. Kile

(United States) is a Researcher on the SIPRI Project on Military
Technology and International Security. He is the author of chapters
in the SIPRI volume A Future Arms Control Agenda: Proceedings
of Nobel Symposium 118, 1999 (2001) and SIPRI Research Report
no. 7, The Future of the Defence Industries in Central and Eastern
Europe (1994) and a co-author (with Adam Daniel Rotfeld) of a
chapter in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in
Europe OSCE Yearbook (1997). He has contributed to two SIPRI
books on Russian security policy: Russia and Europe: The Emerging
Security Agenda (1997) and Russia and Asia: The Emerging Security
Agenda (1999) and is the author of the SIPRI Fact Sheet ‘Missile
defence and the ABM Treaty: a status report’ (2001). He
has contributed to the SIPRI Yearbook since 1995 on nuclear arms

Dr Zdzislaw
is Leader of the SIPRI Project on Conventional Arms Control.
He formerly worked at the Polish Institute of International Affairs
in Warsaw. He has published extensively on the problems of European
military security and arms control as well as on European politico-military
integration. He is the author of The Adapted CFE Treaty and the
Admission of the Baltic States to NATO (SIPRI Policy Paper, 2002)
and has contributed to the SIPRI Yearbook since 1992.


Jinmi Adisa
is Senior Coordinator and Head of the Conference on Security,
Stability, Development and Cooperation in Africa—a major
programme of the new African Union. He obtained his PhD in War
Studies from King’s College, London, in 1983. He has lectured
at the University of Ibadan and held several public positions
in Nigeria. He served in various capacities in the UN and ECOWAS
before joining the African Union. His publications include The
Comfort of Strangers: The Impact of Rwandan Refugees on Neighbouring
Countries (UN Centre for Human Settlements/French Institute for
Research in Africa, 1996) and ‘NEPAD APRM: making the mechanism
work’ in African Security Review (2001).