- Armament and disarmament
- Conflict, peace and security
- Peace and development
TAYLOR B. SEYBOLT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE UPPSALA CONFLICT DATA PROJECT
The world continued to be afflicted with large-scale
violence in 1999, with 27 major armed conflicts in 25 countries.
The number of conflicts was unchanged from 1998; the two years
together represent an upward trend in the number of wars at the
end of the decade. The vast majority of the major armed conflicts
in 1999 were in Africa and Asia; there were 11 in Africa, 9 in
Asia, 3 in the Middle East, 2 in Europe and 2 in South America.
All but two of the conflicts were internal. Most of the major
armed conflicts registered for 1999 are protracted (17 have
been active for at least eight years) or recurrent (4 conflicts).
Fourteen of the conflicts caused over 1000 deaths in 1999. Only
twice in the past decade was there such a high incidence of intensive
conflict. Nearly 1000 people were killed in 3 conflicts, while
far fewer died as a result of 10 of the conflicts in 1999.
Foreign military intervention occurred in only 5 of the 27 conflicts
waged in 1999, suggesting that it remains the exception and is
not becoming the rule. In three of the cases—the FRY (Kosovo),
Indonesia (East Timor) and Sierra Leone—multilateral coalitions
were implicitly or explicitly sanctioned by a regional body or
the United Nations. Only in the Republic of Congo and the Democratic
Republic of Congo was foreign military intervention entirely
States and non-state actors concerned with the occurrence of
violent conflict face a dilemma—persistent intra-state conflicts
and the continual eruption of new ones, combined with their own
well-justified reluctance to intervene militarily.
1A. Major armed conflicts, 1999
MARGARETA SOLLENBERG, STAFFAN ÅNGMAN, YVLA BLONDEL, ANN-SOFI JAKOBSSON HATAY, ANDRÉS JATO, THOMAS OHLSON AND PETER WALLENSTEEN
Appendix 1A presents data on the major armed conflicts of 1999.
Appendix 1B. The war in the Democratic Republic of Congo
TAYLOR B. SEYBOLT
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is
the site of one of the world’s most complicated and troubling
wars. Since 1998 the armed forces of nine states and at least
nine rebel groups have fought in the DRC for control of the DRC
Government; over control of the governments in Angola, Burundi,
Rwanda and Uganda; over exploitation of vast mineral wealth;
and owing to ethnic hatred. The course of the war and its outcome
will strongly influence political stability and economic development
throughout central and southern Africa for years to come.
Three separate Congolese rebel groups, with the support of Rwandan
and Ugandan troops, control about one-half of the country. The
government, with the support of Angolan, Namibian and Zimbabwean
troops, controls the other half. After intense diplomatic efforts
through the Southern African Development Community, the main
warring parties signed the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement in 1999.
Successful implementation of the accord is uncertain because
of the intransigence of the two sides and the reluctance of other
states to provide peacekeeping troops. Continuation of the war
risks laying waste to one of the most densely populated and mineral-rich
regions of the continent.