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Improving the Prospects for Peace in Nigeria: Spotlight on Stabilization

Publisher: SIPRI
SIPRI, Stockholm:
September, 2022

This report presents exploratory research into the potential of the World Food Programmes (WFP) crisis response in Nigeria to contribute to a reduction in direct violence, enhance basic physical security and increase stability.

The findings are based on a desk review of programme documents, in-depth interviews with various stakeholders and project site visits by locally-based researchers across the three states in north-east Nigeria: Borno, Adamawa and Yobe. Additionally, relevant questions were added to the WFP Food Security Outcome Monitoring (FSOM) survey with intended beneficiaries. The findings highlight that WFP programming could contribute to enhancing stability in north-east Nigeria if WFP were to intentionally seek to do so. This report therefore makes eight recommendations.

This report is the first of a series of three. The series is part of phase II of the SIPRI–WFP knowledge partnership and investigates WFP's contributions to improving the prospects for peace in Nigeria. The Nigeria case study research focuses on three thematic areas: stabilization, cash-based transfers (CBTs) and measurement.


1. Context analysis

2. The Nigeria case study approach

3. Theory of change 1: Reducing intra-community tension

4. Theory of change 2: GFD and Boko Haram recruitment

5. Critical cross-cutting observation: Efforts to contribute to stability demand a coherent approach among humanitarian agencies that builds trust and reduces tensions


Dr Caroline Delgado is a Senior Researcher and Director of the Food, Peace and Security Programme at SIPRI.