The independent resource on global security

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk, Volume II, East Asian Perspectives

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk, Volume II
Dr Lora Saalman, Arie Koichi, Li Xiang, Cai Cuihong, Liu Yangyue, Hwang Il-Soon, Nishida Michiru, Hwang Ji-Hwan, Su Fei, Jiang Tianjiao, Vasily Kashin, Kim Ji-Sun and Vadim Kozyulin
Publisher: SIPRI
October, 2019

This edited volume is the second of a series of three. They form part of a SIPRI project that explores regional perspectives and trends related to the impact that recent advances in artificial intelligence could have on nuclear weapons and doctrines, as well as on strategic stability and nuclear risk. This volume assembles the perspectives of 13 experts from East Asia, Russia and the United States on why and how machine learning and autonomy may become the focus of an arms race among nuclear-armed states. It further explores how the adoption of these technologies may have an impact on their calculation of strategic stability and nuclear risk at the regional and transregional levels.

Contents

1. Introduction

Part I. The technologies and dynamics of artificial intelligence and nuclear risk

2. Artificial intelligence and its impact on weaponization and arms control

3. The role of artificial intelligence in deterrence in cyberspace

4. Integration of neural networks into hypersonic glide vehicles

5. Applications of machine learning in North Korea and South Korea

6. Military developments in artificial intelligence and their impact on the Korean peninsula

7. Artificial intelligence and military advances in Russia

8. Exploring artificial intelligence and unmanned platforms in China

Part II. The future of arms control and strategic stability under artificial intelligence

9. The impact of military artificial intelligence on warfare

10. The shaping of strategic stability by artificial intelligence

11. Regulatory frameworks for military artificial intelligence

12. The environmental impact of nuclear-powered autonomous weapons

13. East Asian security dynamics as shaped by machine learning and autonomy

14. Arms control and developments in machine learning and autonomy

Conclusions

15. The impact of artificial intelligence on nuclear asymmetry and signalling in East Asia

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)/EDITORS

Dr Lora Saalman is an Associate Senior Fellow within SIPRI’s Armament and Disarmament and Conflict and Peace research areas and a Senior Fellow in the Global Cooperation in Cyberspace Program at the EastWest Institute​​​​​​​.
Arie Koichi is a senior researcher at the National Institute for Defense Studies, Tokyo.
Cai Cuihong is a professor with the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai.
Hwang Il-Soon is a professor in the Department of Nuclear Engineering at Seoul National University.
Hwang Ji-Hwan is an associate professor at the University of Seoul.
Jiang Tianjiao is an assistant professor in the Department of International Relations at Shanghai International Studies University.
Vasily Kashin is a senior fellow at the Higher School of Economics and the Russian Academy of Science (RAS), Moscow.
Kim Ji-Sun is a professor in the Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University.
Vadim Kozyulin is project director of the Asian Security Project and the Emerging Technologies and Global Security Project at the PIR Center, Moscow.
Li Xiang is an assistant engineer with the China Shipbuilding Information Center.
Liu Yangyue is an associate professor in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences of the National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), Changsha.
Nishida Michiru is head of the Disarmament Unit in the Arms Control and Disarmament Division of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and a special assistant for disarmament and non-proliferation issues.
Su Fei is a researcher within the China and Global Security Programme at SIPRI.