Countering Drone Proliferation from Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Implications for Arms Control and Security Governance

summary

European governments now face not only the drone innovation challenge but also a new security threat. Cheap and scalable dual-use drone technologies are spreading across battlefields and borders alike. Violations of sovereign airspace by Russian drones are not isolated incidents. Drones are increasingly disrupting air traffic and commerce, and affecting public confidence, while concerns about drone-enabled crime increase on the European Union’s southern borders. This widening spectrum of the drone threat has sounded the alarm in European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states. Russia’s war against Ukraine has accelerated the diffusion of drone technologies and their lethal use as gaps in export control mechanisms and opaque supply chains have reduced the barriers to the production of weaponized aerial assets. While a drone wall along NATO’s eastern borders is important, a technological solution alone is not sufficient. This paper suggests that the drone threat comes in the form of rapid proliferation, airspace ambiguity and sanctions evasion. How can European countries prevent cheap drone interference from becoming a normalized instrument of pressure against Europe? The paper examines the key issues of dormant arms trade regulations, escalation risks linked to underdeveloped airspace governance and loopholes in dual-use technology export control.