The Space–Nuclear Nexus in European Security

The space–nuclear nexus is prominent in today’s European security environment, amid shifting alliance dynamics and developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine. This paper compares dependencies, priorities and strategic cultures of various actors in the space and nuclear domains, beginning with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the European Union and their three nuclear-armed states: France, the United Kingdom and the United States. These actors feature centrally in Russian threat perceptions and converge on the sources of threats—primarily Russia, and to a lesser degree China, Iran and North Korea—but diverge significantly on the level of threat. The paper consequently examines Russia and its bilateral cooperation on space and nuclear weapons with China, Iran and North Korea, noting convergences as well as divergences in each relationship.

The paper analyses how convergences and divergences in alliances and partnerships can impact stability and shape escalation risks at the space–nuclear nexus. The paper explores stabilizing effects, as well as destabilizing effects of these relationships. The latter include potential to drive escalatory and mirroring behaviours, distort threat perceptions, further blur red lines, legitimize attacks on space systems and encourage inaccurate perceptions of blocs that impede multilateral negotiations. Accordingly, the paper proposes a series of escalation management measures to curb the destabilizing effects of alliances and partnerships and minimize escalation risks at the space–nuclear nexus.