3. Regional security and conflict dynamics

Regional security and conflict dynamics are defined by a complex mix of threats and challenges to state and human security. Across all major world regions in 2025 there was a pattern of escalating armed conflict, great power competition, fragmenting world order and climate change-driven insecurity.

The Americas

Key human and state security trends in 
the Americas visible in 2025 included the attempted reassertion of regional hegemony by the United States amid great power competition with China in the region. This involved increasing economic and political pressure across the Americas and intervening militarily in Venezuela. Another notable trend was that criminal groups continued to challenge the state’s monopoly on violence and control of territory in several countries in the region.

Asia and Oceania

In 2025 the diverse security landscape in Asia and Oceania continued to be marked by intensifying strategic competition between China and the USA. Other trends in the region included the ongoing build-up of arms in many states and widespread domestic instability often resulting in democratic erosion or political volatility. Several critical regional flashpoints remained at risk of escalating into major interstate armed conflicts; for example, an unusually severe military crisis erupted between India and Pakistan in May 2025.

Europe

The security picture in Europe in 2025 was shaped primarily by the continuing Russia–Ukraine war, which meant that it was the region with the highest number of conflict-related fatalities. In many European countries, the war has led to a refocusing of state priorities on hard power, leading to sharp increases in military expenditure, and has amplified political fragmentation and great power competition.

The Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa is a region characterized by deep-seated instability. In 2025 it hosted roughly one fifth of forcibly displaced people worldwide and faced acute food and water insecurity. While a formal ceasefire that took effect in October halted large-scale military offensives in the war in Gaza, subsequent breaches were frequent and severe. The war has resulted in grave violations of international law and a humanitarian catastrophe, with 90 per cent of Gaza’s population displaced and reported Palestinian deaths totalling over 71 000 by the end of 2025. The Iran–Israel and Saudi Arabia–United Arab Emirates rivalries also fuelled regional instability and armed conflict during the year.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to face a complex web of interconnected human and state security challenges. These include extreme poverty, armed conflict, terrorist threats, cli-mate change vulnerability, weak governance and intense geopolitical competition as states outside the region scramble for influence and resources. Sub-Saharan Africa hosted more than 45 per cent of the global total of internally displaced people in 2025 and an estimated 167 million Africans faced acute food insecurity—a record high.