Since 2018, the European Union-funded project ‘Central Mali for Security and Development’ has monitored the Central Mali population’s perceptions on security, governance and socio-economic development.
Since 2018, the European Union-funded project ‘Central Mali for Security and Development’ has monitored the Central Mali population’s perceptions on security, governance and socio-economic development.
Since 2018, the European Union-funded project ‘Central Mali for Security and Development’ has monitored the Central Mali population’s perceptions on security, governance and socio-economic development.
Somalia is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change and extreme weather. Without anticipatory preventive approaches, these factors are likely to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and reduce the people’s livelihood options, which in turn may have negative impacts for stability and security in Somalia.
South Sudan is highly vulnerable to climate change, including flooding, droughts and, most recently, a locust infestation. Long-term climate change, like a gradual increase in temperature, and short-term changes, like increased flooding, have indirect and interlinked implications for peace and security in South Sudan.
Mali is characterised by short-term climate variability, and is vulnerable to long-term climate change due to high exposure to the adverse effects of climate change, but also high population growth, diminished resilience and multiple violent conflicts. Mali is forecast to become hotter with more erratic rainfall, impacting seasonal regularity and increasing the risk of droughts and floods. Moreover, conflict, political instability and weak government institutions undermine effective adaptation to climate change.
The Sahel region is highly exposed to climate change, but national and local factors mean that climate change will have differentiated impacts across the region. The region will gradually become hotter, with some areas experiencing increased, but erratic, rainfall. The immediate effects of these trends may include irregular seasons, droughts and floods. Interacting with social, economic and political factors, these could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and increase the risk of violent conflict:
Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change: rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Currently, Afghanistan is experiencing its worst drought in 27 years, which, compounded with COVID-19 and the economic contraction that followed the takeover of the government by the Taliban in August 2021, has significantly increased livelihood and food insecurity and contributed to a growing humanitarian emergency.
The recent flooding in South Sudan is the worst in over 60 years. South Sudan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including droughts and flooding. Both long-term climate change, such as the gradual increase in temperatures, and short-term extreme climate events, like increased flooding, have indirect and interlinked implications for peace and security in South Sudan.
Iraq is highly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The country’s vulnerability is shaped by its physical exposure, a strong natural resource dependency and low adaptive capacity due to violent conflict, poverty, political instability and corruption. Iraq is particularly exposed to floods, droughts and dust storms, increasingly linked to temperature and precipitation variability.