Addressing Multidomain Nuclear Escalation Risk

Contemporary warfare is characterized by military operations that encompass multiple arenas—from air, land and sea to the increasingly prominent cyber, outer space and information domains—and feature the convergence of advanced technological capabilities. New vectors of vulnerability stemming from this and from increasing interactions between nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities raise the spectre of escalation and introduce new potential pathways for nuclear weapon use.

These new risks have not been thoroughly explored in national policies or multilateral forums. Effectively addressing multidomain escalation risk requires that nuclear-armed states revisit the concept of ‘strategic stability’ and systematically map multidomain escalation scenarios while engaging non-nuclear-armed states and other stakeholders. The toolkit for avoiding and managing crisis also needs to be updated to reflect multidomain risk scenarios. These and other pragmatic steps can help prevent escalation pathways from coming into fruition. A longer-term approach is required to reverse both arms racing trends and current thinking regarding strategic capabilities.