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Three Steps to Including Conflict Considerations in the Design of Climate Change Adaptation Projects

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Publisher: SIPRI
SIPRI, Stockholm:
May, 2023

In fragile and conflict-affected countries, climate change adaptation projects have the potential to influence conflict dynamics—and either increase or reduce conflict risks—depending on their design and implementation. However, as yet, conflict risks do not seem to be systematically considered in the design and evaluation of adaptation projects, making it difficult to determine how they can influence conflict dynamics. This policy brief recommends a three-step approach to facilitating the consideration of conflict risks in the design of climate change adaptation projects that involves analysing the existing climate–conflict dynamics, assessing a project’s potential influence on them and, finally, integrating the insights gained from the first two steps into the project’s design.



Step 1: Analysing climate-conflict dynamics at the project level

Step 2: Assessing how the project influences climate-conflict dynamics

Step 3: Integrating climate-conflict analysis into project design



Dr Karen Meijer is a Senior Researcher in the SIPRI Climate Change and Risk Programme.
Emilie Broek was a Research Assistant in the SIPRI Climate Change and Risk Programme.
Nella Canales is a Research Fellow with SEI’s Resources, Rights and Development Division, specializing in climate adaptation finance and equity.
Biljana Macura is a Senior Research fellow with SEI’s Resources, Rights and Development Division.