The independent resource on global security

How War Might Spread to Europe

War in Europe.jpg
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN 0-85066-302-4
109 pp.

European security is usually examined in the context of East–West relations in Europe, but not many people believe that a war is likely to start in Europe. It appears to be a continent with settled boundaries. Scenarios of sudden, unprovoked incursions across the border by either NATO or Warsaw Treaty Organization troops seem implausible today.

The risks of war are much greater in many other parts of the world. In most of these troubled areas the United States and the Soviet Union confront each other by proxy. The possibility cannot be excluded that these indirect conflicts might at some time become direct. It is then that war might well come to Europe.

This book examines these risks. Miroslav Nincic studies the areas outside Europe where the superpowers confront each other, looks at ways in which war might spread, and puts forward suggestions about how the risks might be reduced.


1. The background: East–West relations and the Third World

2. The arenas: Superpower disputes and the Third World

Appendix. Naval nuclear deployments in the Mediterranean area and in the Indian Ocean

3. Allied dilemmas: Dangers of European involvement

4. Two scenarios

Appendix. Conflict expansion and probability analysis: an illustrative example

5. On reducing the risks