Summary

The world continued to be afflicted with large-scale violence in 1999, with 27 major armed conflicts in 25 countries. The number of conflicts was unchanged from 1998; the two years together represent an upward trend in the number of wars at the end of the decade. The vast majority of the major armed conflicts in 1999 were in Africa and Asia; there were 11 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 3 in the Middle East, 2 in Europe and 2 in South America. All but two of the conflicts were internal. Most of the major armed conflicts registered for 1999 are protracted (17 have been active for at least eight years) or recurrent (4 conflicts).

Fourteen of the conflicts caused over 1000 deaths in 1999. Only twice in the past decade was there such a high incidence of intensive conflict. Nearly 1000 people were killed in 3 conflicts, while far fewer died as a result of 10 of the conflicts in 1999.

Foreign military intervention occurred in only 5 of the 27 conflicts waged in 1999, suggesting that it remains the exception and is not becoming the rule. In three of the cases—the FRY (Kosovo), Indonesia (East Timor) and Sierra Leone—multilateral coalitions were implicitly or explicitly sanctioned by a regional body or the United Nations. Only in the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo was foreign military intervention entirely unauthorized.

States and non-state actors concerned with the occurrence of violent conflict face a dilemma—persistent intra-state conflicts and the continual eruption of new ones, combined with their own well-justified reluctance to intervene militarily.

Appendix 1A. Major armed conflicts, 1999

MARGARETA SOLLENBERG, STAFFAN ÅNGMAN, YVLA BLONDEL, ANN-SOFI JAKOBSSON HATAY, ANDRÉS JATO, THOMAS OHLSON AND PETER WALLENSTEEN

Appendix 1B. The war in the Democratic Republic of Congo

TAYLOR B. SEYBOLT

Summary

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the site of one of the world’s most complicated and troubling wars. Since 1998 the armed forces of nine states and at least nine rebel groups have fought in the DRC for control of the DRC Government; over control of the governments in Angola, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda; over exploitation of vast mineral wealth; and owing to ethnic hatred. The course of the war and its outcome will strongly influence political stability and economic development throughout central and southern Africa for years to come.

Three separate Congolese rebel groups, with the support of Rwandan and Ugandan troops, control about one-half of the country. The government, with the support of Angolan, Namibian and Zimbabwean troops, controls the other half. After intense diplomatic efforts through the Southern African Development Community, the main warring parties signed the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement in 1999. Successful implementation of the accord is uncertain because of the intransigence of the two sides and the reluctance of other states to provide peacekeeping troops. Continuation of the war risks laying waste to one of the most densely populated and mineral-rich regions of the continent.