Managing competition and promoting cooperation in the Arctic

With the rate of ice melt increasing, many observers predict that the Arctic region will experience an ice-free summer in the foreseeable future. The decline of the Arctic ice cap is already having a significant regional and global impact. It is opening up new opportunities for shipping and resource extraction, but it is also raising new challenges, including over key political and security issues.

The uncertainty engendered by the fast changing climatic conditions in the Arctic has created considerable speculation about the prospect for new military competition in the region. Some have even gone so far as to see the emergence of an ‘Arctic cold war’, as a result of the struggle to gain access to the region’s important natural resources and transport routes. In the context of a rapidly evolving world political economy, in which emerging economic giants - such as China, India and Brazil - are seeking increased supplies of the globe’s natural resources, there is no doubt that the Arctic represents a new key region both to existing Arctic powers and to ‘newcomers’ or ‘outsiders’.

The sense of a struggle over access to the region has been fuelled by publicity stunts, such as the planting of the Russian flag on the Arctic seabed at the North Pole in 2007. A number of countries have announced new military strategies for the Arctic and increased spending on defence for the region. At the same time, tensions have emerged over who will determine the future of the region. Will it be only the five Arctic littoral states (Canada, Denmark/Faroe Islands/Greenland, Norway, Russia and the United States, or the eight Arctic Council states (the littoral states as well as Finland, Sweden and Iceland), or will a wide variety of counties be able to participate in the development of the region?

While there are considerable challenges emerging in respect to changes in the Arctic, there are also important developments in the management of the region through cooperation, on the basis of international law and through agreements reached within the context of multilateral institutions. The Arctic Council, strives to promote consensus and cooperation in the region, including with indigenous groups. However, as an international organization without a firm legal charter, the Arctic Council is constrained in what it can do and several of the Council’s member states oppose broadening the Council’s mandate to deal with legal issues.

In order to explore the emerging political and security dynamics over the future development of the Arctic region, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) will conduct a three-year project entitled ‘Managing Competition and Promoting Cooperation in the Arctic’. The aims of this project are:

• To identify the key emerging political and security issues in respect to the development of the Arctic region;

• To map and analyse the main political dynamics over access to the Arctic and its resources.

• A particular element of the project will be to examine the interests in and approaches to the Arctic emerging in Asia, notably of the People's Republic of China, the Republic of Korea and Japan;

• To analyse the main security challenges in the Arctic and consider how existing security frameworks (notably those for Euro-Atlantic and Asian security) might be developed to provide effective forums for promoting common security and for building confidence on Arctic security issues.