2. Armed conflict and conflict management

In 2024 the global armed conflict land-scape continued to deteriorate, with large-scale violence across multiple regions. Perhaps the most pronounced change in armed conflict since 2021 has been the return of extensive conventional interstate warfare in Europe and cross-border, state-led military aggression in the Middle East.

Although the number of locations of armed conflict fell slightly, from 51 states in 2023 to 49 in 2024, the estimated overall number of fatalities rose from 188 000 in 2023 to 239 000 in 2024.  This was the highest annual total in the period 2018–24 (the years for which consistent data is available). There were five major armed conflicts involving over 10 000 estimated conflict-related fatalities in 2024 (one more than in 2023): the Israel–Hamas and Russia–Ukraine wars, the civil wars in Myanmar and Sudan, and the subnational armed conflicts in Ethiopia. The number of high-intensity conflicts, with 1000–9999 estimated conflict-related fatalities, fell from 20 in 2023 to 19 in 2024. Outside of Europe, most wars continued to take place within states—or in clusters of states with porous borders—and to involve non-state armed groups. The international dimension remains key to many armed conflicts, with military intervention or substantial support often being provided to one or more of the warring parties by outside powers.

Armed conflicts by number of estimated conflict-related fatalities, 2024

Europe

Europe had the highest level of conflict-related fatalities in 2024 (77 771), having been the region with the lowest annual level during 2018–21. Estimated conflict-related fatalities in Europe doubled between 2023 and 2024 as the Russia–Ukraine war increased in intensity. This included more clashes inside Russia and expansion beyond the supply of arms and assistance to each side by supporting states to the direct deployment of troops to Russia from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea). At the end of 2024, Russia controlled just under one fifth of Ukrainian territory. Russian air attacks continued through the year, and Ukraine replied in kind, although not on the same scale. There were no formal Russia–Ukraine peace talks in the course of 2024, but the re-election of Donald J. Trump as president of the United States was expected to lead to a re-evaluation of US policy towards the war in 2025.

The Middle East and North Africa

The human toll of the ongoing war in  Gaza rose substantially in 2024, with over 45 500 Palestinians dead, 90 per cent of the population displaced and much of the area reduced to rubble by the end of the year. The war also spilled over on multiple fronts: violence in the West Bank rose to record levels; Israel launched a ground campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon; the Iran–Israel conflict escalated beyond a proxy war to a series of direct exchanges of fire; and Israel’s actions also inadvert-ently contributed to the unexpected and rapid collapse of the government of Presi-dent Bashar al-Assad in Syria, taking the 13-year Syrian civil war into an uncertain endgame. The region’s other armed conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Türkiye and Yemen have reduced in intensity in recent years without reaching any sustainable resolutions.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa remained the region with the most armed conflicts (21), although many involved fewer than 1000 conflict-related fatalities over the year and levels of violence fluctuated con-sider-ably. Between 2023 and 2024, there were notable decreases in conflict-related fatalities in some countries experi-encing high-intensity armed conflict, includ-ing Burkina Faso (–12 per cent), Mali (–7.0 per cent), Somalia (–35 per cent) and South Sudan (–16 per cent). Other armed conflicts escalated, with increases in fatality rates in Ethiopia (+152 per cent) and Niger (+48 per cent). The civil war in Sudan accounted for nearly 24 per cent of all conflict-related fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, despite a small year-on-year decline in the number of fatalities related to the war.

The Americas and Asia and Oceania

The Americas was the only region not to have had a major armed conflict in 2018–24. The two countries that suffered the highest number of fatalities in 2024—Brazil and Mexico—largely faced criminal rather than political violence. Gang violence escalated in Haiti during the year, despite the long-delayed arrival of inter-national security assistance in June. The conflict-related fatality rate for Asia and Oceania has more than halved since 2021, notwithstanding the civil war in Myanmar.

Peace processes

In 2024 there were a few noteworthy developments in peace processes designed to prevent the occurrence (or reoccurrence) of armed violence: China and India defused tensions along their disputed border; China and the Philippines set up a dispute-resolution process to improve their handling of maritime disputes; and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan resolved a long-standing border dispute. However, few peace processes linked to ongoing armed conflict advanced in 2024. While there was some further progress in South Sudan, there were set-backs for peace processes in Colombia, Ethiopia, the Philippines and Yemen.