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A Top Global Think Tank

Afghanistan: fragile hopes

Debates about Afghanistan’s future take place against a backdrop of increasing insurgent attacks, slow political and economic progress and negative perceptions within the international community and the Afghan people about the country’s prospects. Even the most sanguine analysts suggest that it will get worse before it gets better and that an intensification of fighting is virtually guaranteed. Any progress made in the next few years is certain to be fragile.

The election of US President Obama and the wholesale reappraisal of US strategy have injected a new optimism. New thinking, military capability, financial and other resources are being refocused. But much will depend on how quickly and effectively the Obama administration can get up to speed and apply itself over the next year or two, before the international community and the Afghan population lose heart. 

What signs of real progress are there in Afghanistan? Can the Taliban be defeated in any military sense? What role is there for NATO and the EU given the USA’s increasing financial, political and military dominance? And how will the worrying developments in Pakistan impact on Afghanistan?


In the Yearbook

Chapter 4. Security and politics in Afghanistan: progress, problems and prospects

 

SIPRI experts

Tim Foxley, Researcher, SIPRI Armed Conflicts and Conflict Management Programme

Lakhdar Brahimi, SIPRI Board Member and former United Nations special representative for Afghanistan and Iraq

Dr Nabil Elaraby, SIPRI Board Member and former member of the UN International Law Commission

SIPRI in the media