Questionnaire Version 1.00

One of the main features of the SIPRI Early Warning system is our expert questionnaire providing us with short-term development data (events data), data which cannot be obtained from country statistics, but only through observation of, for example, daily political and economic events. The questionnaire is answered by local and regional experts on a monthly basis and its data will be combined with our structural data in an extended forecasting model (see Working paper #1).

The questionnaire presented here is a first draft. We published it in its present form in order to get feedback and comments from external experts on the selection, phrasing, and importance of the questions. We also appreciate any suggestions for further questions,

Feel free to contact us for questions and/or comments: The Early Warning Project Team

The questionnaire has been developed by Gerd Hagmeyer-Gaverus and Mikael Weissmann, also with the support from local and regional experts.

Explanation

The questionnaire consist of three types of questions:

First; questions which allow an answer on a scale from 1-9. These questions enable us to measure trends of short-term developments. It is important to note that the focus of this system lays on trends, as opposed to absolute values. Each expert's monthly answers are measured against his previous answers and not against answers of another expert. Thus the problem of different subjective perceptions is excluded.

Second; questions which allow a YES or NO choice. These questions refer to the occurrence of specific events, such as the imposement of restrictive measures, which may have an impact on the risk of conflict.’

Third; an open question which allows the respondent to add information that he or she considers being of special importance.